ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Describing transmission dynamics of the outbreak and impact of intervention measures are critical to planning responses to future outbreaks and providing timely information to guide policy makers decision. We estimate serial interval (SI) and temporal reproduction number (Rt) of SARS-CoV-2 in Tunisia. METHODS: We collected data of investigations and contact tracing between March 1, 2020 and May 5, 2020 as well as illness onset data during the period February 29-May 5, 2020 from National Observatory of New and Emerging Diseases of Tunisia. Maximum likelihood (ML) approach is used to estimate dynamics of Rt. RESULTS: Four hundred ninety-one of infector-infectee pairs were involved, with 14.46% reported pre-symptomatic transmission. SI follows Gamma distribution with mean 5.30 days [95% Confidence Interval (CI) 4.66-5.95] and standard deviation 0.26 [95% CI 0.23-0.30]. Also, we estimated large changes in Rt in response to the combined lockdown interventions. The Rt moves from 3.18 [95% Credible Interval (CrI) 2.73-3.69] to 1.77 [95% CrI 1.49-2.08] with curfew prevention measure, and under the epidemic threshold (0.89 [95% CrI 0.84-0.94]) by national lockdown measure. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our findings highlight contribution of interventions to interrupt transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Tunisia.
Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/transmission , Models, Statistical , Pandemics , Quarantine/methods , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/virology , Contact Tracing , Humans , Incidence , Research Design , Tunisia/epidemiologyABSTRACT
The aim of this study is to test a pooling approach for the RT-PCR test to detect low viral loads of SARS-CoV-2. We found that a single positive specimen can still be detected in pools of up to 10. Each laboratory should conduct its own evaluation and validation of pooling protocols according to its specific context.